Association between detectable SARS-COV-2 RNA in anal swabs and disease severity in patients with coronavirus disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA was found in the intestines and feces, but its clinical significance is not completely clear. We aim to characterize the longitudinal test results of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in anal swabs and to explore the association with disease severity. METHODS: We included laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, who were hospitalized in Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital and excluded those who had not received anal swabs for SARS-COV-2 RNA testing. Epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data were obtained. Throat swabs and anal swabs were collected periodically for SARS-COV-2 RNA detection. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventeen eligible patients (median aged 50 years, 50.2% were females) were analyzed. 21.2% (46/217) of the patients were detected with SARS-CoV-2 RNA in anal swabs. The duration of viral RNA was longer, but the viral load was lower in anal swabs than throat swabs in the early stage of the disease. During a median follow-up of 20 days, 30 (13.8%) patients were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for high-flow nasal cannula or higher-level oxygen support measures to correct hypoxemia. Detectable viral RNA in anal swabs (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-5.24), increased C-reactive protein (aHR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.35-7.32) and lymphocytopenia (aHR, 3.12; 95% CI, 1.46-6.67) were independently associated with ICU admission. The cumulative incidence of ICU admission was higher among patients with detectable viral RNA in anal swabs (26.3% vs 10.7%, P = .006). CONCLUSION: Detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the digestive tract was a potential warning indicator of severe disease.

Factors associated with clinical outcomes in patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Guangzhou, China.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is threatening billions of people. We described the clinical characteristics and explore virological and immunological factors associated with clinical outcomes. METHODS: 297 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital between January 20 and February 20, 2020 were included. Epidemiological, clinical and laboratory data were collected and analyzed. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in respiratory tract, blood samples and digestive tract was detected and lymphocyte subsets were tested periodically. RESULT: Among the 297 patients (median age of 48 years), 154 (51.9 %) were female, 245 (82.5 %) mild/moderate cases, and 52 (17.5 %) severe/critical cases. 270 patients were detected for SARS-CoV-2 RNA in anal swabs and/or blood samples, and the overall positive rate was 23.0 % (62/270), higher in severe/critical cases than in mild/moderate cases (52.0 % vs. 16.4 %, P < 0.001). The CD4/CD8 ratio on admission was significantly higher in severe/critical cases than in mild/moderate cases (1.84 vs. 1.50, P = 0.022). During a median follow-up period of 17 days, 36 (12.1 %) patients were admitted to intensive care unit (ICU), 16 (5.4 %) patients developed respiratory failure and underwent mechanical ventilation, four (1.3 %) patients needed extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), only one (0.34 %) patients died of multiple organ failure. Detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA in anal swabs and/or blood samples, as well as higher CD4/CD8 ratio were independent risk factors of respiratory failure and ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: Most of COVID-19 patients in Guangzhou are mild/moderate, and presence of extrapulmonary virus and higher CD4/CD8 ratio are associated with higher risk of worse outcomes.

Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and quickly spread throughout China and the rest of the world. Many mathematical models have been developed to understand and predict the infectiousness of COVID-19. We aim to summarize these models to inform efforts to manage the current outbreak. Methods: We searched PubMed, Web of science, EMBASE, bioRxiv, medRxiv, arXiv, Preprints, and National Knowledge Infrastructure (Chinese database) for relevant studies published between 1 December 2019 and 21 February 2020. References were screened for additional publications. Crucial indicators were extracted and analysed. We also built a mathematical model for the evolution of the epidemic in Wuhan that synthesised extracted indicators. Results: Fifty-two articles involving 75 mathematical or statistical models were included in our systematic review. The overall median basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.77 [interquartile range (IQR) 2.78-5.13], which dropped to a controlled reproduction number (Rc) of 1.88 (IQR 1.41-2.24) after city lockdown. The median incubation and infectious periods were 5.90 (IQR 4.78-6.25) and 9.94 (IQR 3.93-13.50) days, respectively. The median case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.9% (IQR 2.3-5.4%). Our mathematical model showed that, in Wuhan, the peak time of infection is likely to be March 2020 with a median size of 98,333 infected cases (range 55,225-188,284). The earliest elimination of ongoing transmission is likely to be achieved around 7 May 2020. Conclusions: Our analysis found a sustained Rc and prolonged incubation/ infectious periods, suggesting COVID-19 is highly infectious. Although interventions in China have been effective in controlling secondary transmission, sustained global efforts are needed to contain an emerging pandemic. Alternative interventions can be explored using modelling studies to better inform policymaking as the outbreak continues.

Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To better inform efforts to treat and control the current outbreak with a comprehensive characterization of COVID-19. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and CNKI (Chinese Database) for studies published as of March 2, 2020, and we searched references of identified articles. Studies were reviewed for methodological quality. A random-effects model was used to pool results. Heterogeneity was assessed using I2. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's test. RESULTS: 43 studies involving 3600 patients were included. Among COVID-19 patients, fever (83.3% [95% CI 78.4-87.7]), cough (60.3% [54.2-66.3]), and fatigue (38.0% [29.8-46.5]) were the most common clinical symptoms. The most common laboratory abnormalities were elevated C-reactive protein (68.6% [58.2-78.2]), decreased lymphocyte count (57.4% [44.8-69.5]) and increased lactate dehydrogenase (51.6% [31.4-71.6]). Ground-glass opacities (80.0% [67.3-90.4]) and bilateral pneumonia (73.2% [63.4-82.1]) were the most frequently reported findings on computed tomography. The overall estimated proportion of severe cases and case-fatality rate (CFR) was 25.6% (17.4-34.9) and 3.6% (1.1-7.2), respectively. CFR and laboratory abnormalities were higher in severe cases, patients from Wuhan, and older patients, but CFR did not differ by gender. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of COVID-19 cases are symptomatic with a moderate CFR. Patients living in Wuhan, older patients, and those with medical comorbidities tend to have more severe clinical symptoms and higher CFR.